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In the most basic terms, safe zones are “areas designated by agreement of parties to an armed conflict in which military forces will not deploy or carry out attacks,” according to Human Rights Watch (HRW). In some cases, they can also include “no-fly” zones, which would bar all parties from using the airspace for operations. In theory, a safe zone is a pocket of safety surrounded by conflict in an otherwise hostile environment.
In principle, safe zones are meant to provide protection for civilians, but in the case of Syria they have been considered for a multitude of other reasons – including returning refugees, stopping the flow of civilians fleeing to neighboring countries and enabling foreign or local powers to exert control over an area.
Nine months into the de-escalation agreement, the deal has helped the Syrian government seize additional territory and widen its control rather than reduce violence in the designated areas, experts said.
As part of our ‘Experts to Watch’ series, we highlight seven experts monitoring the proposals for safe zones in Syria and the foreign powers pushing for their creation.
Syria Deeply’s expert community weighed in on Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s recent remarks about working with Russia to create a “unified Syria,” and whether or not this contradicts Moscow’s de-escalation zone proposal.
Neil Hauer Senior Intelligence Analyst, SecDev Group in Ottawa
There is growing common ground between Russia and former Assad opponent Turkey on enforcing a de-escalation zone in the northern rebel enclave of Idlib province, writes intelligence analyst Neil Hauer.
Anthony Elghossain Lawyer and Writer, Beirut
The Syrian state will try to ensure de-escalation and decentralization do not undermine its control over a “Strategic Syria.” For these Western strategies to become solutions for Syrians, officials must make programs viable, says lawyer and writer Anthony Elghossain.
In recent weeks Daraa has witnessed the most intense clashes and aerial bombardments it has seen for years. Despite the plan for “de-escalation zones,” civilians in the city are likely to be caught in the newest battlefield for foreign power proxies and the warring Syrian sides.
Despite its official policy of non-intervention, Israel has taken on a very proactive role in Syria, working to establish an Israel-friendly zone in Quneitra, akin to its strategy in southern Lebanon during the Lebanese civil war.
Geoff Gilbert Professor of Law, School of Law and Human Rights Centre at the University of Essex
Anna Magdalena Rüsch Associate Refugee Status Determination (RSD) Officer, UNHCR
In today’s conflicts, safe zones cannot realistically provide the security guaranteed to civilians under international law and should not be proposed as a substitute for asylum in another country, according to the Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law.
Neil Hauer Senior Intelligence Analyst, SecDev Group in Ottawa
Neil Hauer, senior intelligence analyst at the SecDev Group, examines Russia’s primary option to secure the “de-escalation zones” and ensure compliance with the cease-fire: the Chechen units of the Kremlin’s military police.
Geoff Gilbert Professor of Law, School of Law and Human Rights Centre at the University of Essex
Anna Magdalena Rüsch Associate Refugee Status Determination (RSD) Officer, UNHCR
In today’s conflicts, safe zones cannot realistically provide the security guaranteed to civilians under international law and should not be proposed as a substitute for asylum in another country, according to the Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law.
‘De-escalation zones’ are at the forefront of the current Geneva peace talks. Russia has tailored them to the geopolitical needs of nearly every stakeholder involved in the crisis, effectively resulting in a partition of western Syria, writes analyst Lorenzo Trombetta.
Aron Lund Freelance Journalist and Analyst Specializing in Syria
As Russia’s ‘de-escalation’ plan comes into effect in four areas of the country, Syria expert Aron Lund explains in IRIN News why the Astana deal may not result in a lasting cease-fire.
As foreign powers call for safe zones in Syria, analyst Lorenzo Trombetta explains that de facto zones of control have already been established. However, they are part of a strategy to further political and military goals rather than a method of civilian protection.
Following Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s call for a safe zone in Syria along the Lebanese border, Syrian journalist Abdulrahman al-Masri explores what the Shiite militia stands to gain from such an area and the potential impact on regional powers.
Syrian military expert Nawar Oliver discusses the challenges facing potential plans for safe zones in Syria, particularly threats from ISIS sleeper cells and the complex divisions on all sides of the conflict.
Christopher Kozak, a Syria analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, discusses the larger strategy for Donald Trump’s possible safe zones in Syria, and the challenges of partnering with certain allies in the region.
Several big questions remain about President Donald Trump’s possible policy for safe zones in Syria, but any plan will shift the dynamics of the conflict and risks creating deeper divisions in the country’s political and social landscape.
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